Disaster! NASA Artemis II New Launch Date will be Longer than what NASA said

The space industry is once again witnessing a dramatic contrast between two radically different approaches to human spaceflight. On one side, SpaceX fixed a Falcon 9 upper stage issue and returned to flight in less than a week. On the other, NASA’s Artemis II mission is facing yet another delay—this time due to a hydrogen leak that has haunted the Space Launch System (SLS) program for decades.

NASA is currently targeting March for Artemis II, but insiders and historical precedent suggest that timeline could easily slip further—possibly to late 2026. So what’s really happening behind the scenes? When can we realistically expect Artemis II to launch? And are deeper structural issues contributing to these repeated delays?

Let’s take a closer look.

SpaceX Returns to Flight in Record Time

While NASA struggles with another postponement, SpaceX has already cleared Crew-12 for launch after resolving a Falcon 9 upper stage issue that briefly grounded flights.

NASA Artemis II New Launch Date will be Longer than what NASA said

Just over a week ago, Falcon 9 missions were paused by the FAA following an anomaly. Yet in classic SpaceX fashion, the company:

Identified the issue
Implemented corrective measures
Completed reviews
Resumed launch operations

Crew-12 has now completed its full rehearsal ahead of its trip to the International Space Station. The new launch target is no earlier than Friday, February 13, following a minor two-day weather delay.

Weather delays are normal in spaceflight. A one-day slip is routine.

But compare that to Artemis II.

Artemis II Faces Another Hydrogen Leak

NASA’s Artemis II mission, four years in preparation, is now dealing with at least a one-month delay—and possibly more.

The culprit? Once again, liquid hydrogen leakage.

Hydrogen is notoriously difficult to contain. It’s the smallest molecule in existence and can escape through microscopic imperfections. The SLS core stage, which uses liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen as propellant, has struggled with this issue since its earliest design roots in the Space Shuttle era.

NASA recently confirmed:

March is still a possible launch window
A firm date will only be set after a successful Wet Dress Rehearsal (WDR)
Data must be fully reviewed before committing

In other words, there is currently no official launch date for Artemis II.

Why NASA Isn’t Rolling Back to the VAB

One major shift this time: NASA is not rolling the rocket back to the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).

Instead, all repairs will happen directly at Launch Complex 39B.

Why does this matter?

Moving the SLS rocket:

Requires a massive crawler-transporter
Introduces significant vibration
Can worsen seal damage
Risks creating new leaks
Affects sensitive systems

During Artemis I, NASA rolled the vehicle back and forth multiple times over eight months. That process likely contributed to wear and stress.

This time, technicians:

Replaced two hydrogen seals at the leak site
Sent old seals for root-cause analysis
Are preparing to reconnect the interface

Fixing the issue at the pad is faster and reduces additional risk. But that doesn’t guarantee success.

When Could Artemis II Realistically Launch?

If everything goes perfectly:

Wet Dress Rehearsal: Around February 25
Data review period: ~2 weeks
Potential launch window: March 9–11

But here’s the critical caveat:

If hydrogen leaks reappear during the next WDR, the launch could slip to April or later.

And history suggests caution.

Artemis I: A Lesson in Delays

Let’s revisit Artemis I.

Final successful WDR: June 20, 2022
Actual launch: November 16, 2022
Time gap: 149 days

Nearly five months separated the rehearsal and liftoff.

NASA declared the WDR campaign complete even though a small hydrogen leak was detected at T-minus 29 seconds.

The lesson?
A successful rehearsal does not guarantee a near-term launch.

When it comes to NASA schedules, predictions are difficult. Unlike SpaceX, where delays are often measured in days or weeks, NASA delays frequently stretch into months.

The Cost-Plus Contract Factor

Beyond technical issues, financial structures play a major role.

The SLS and Orion programs operate under cost-plus contracts. Major contractors include:

Boeing
Northrop Grumman
Lockheed Martin

Under cost-plus agreements:

Contractors are reimbursed for expenses
A guaranteed profit margin is added
More time = more billable hours

This doesn’t mean delays are intentional. But structurally, the system does not penalize slowness.

In fact:

Extended timelines maintain workforce stability
Funding streams continue flowing
Political support across multiple states remains intact

Slow progress becomes embedded in the architecture of the program.

The Human Risk of Artemis II

Artemis II is not a routine mission.

Four astronauts—including Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen—will travel beyond Earth’s magnetic field into deep space.

Radiation Exposure

Under normal conditions:

Radiation dose ≈ a full-body CT scan

During a solar storm:

Radiation could spike dramatically
Long-term cancer risks increase
Acute symptoms like nausea may occur

This is a 10-day deep space mission—far riskier than low Earth orbit operations.

NASA knows the stakes.

The Orion Heat Shield Controversy

After Artemis I, engineers discovered unexpected material flaking on the Orion heat shield during re-entry.

Rather than redesigning the system, NASA opted to:

Adjust the re-entry trajectory
Stick with the existing Avcoat heat shield material
Avoid a complete retest to prevent schedule delays

Critics Are Concerned

Former NASA astronaut Charles Camarda has openly questioned this approach. He argues:

NASA does not fully understand why the heat shield material flaked
Adjusting trajectory without full retesting may introduce risk
History shows dangers of minimizing warning signs

He draws parallels to Columbia in 2003.

Similarly, astrophysicist Casey Handmer has criticized the Artemis architecture as:

Overly complex
Fragile
Politically motivated
Expensive beyond necessity

Even NASA’s Office of Inspector General acknowledged that re-entry risk remains if heat shield concerns are not fully resolved.

Scientific experts have echoed concerns about continuing with Avcoat material without comprehensive flight revalidation.

These are not fringe voices. They are experienced professionals raising technical questions.

Apollo 8 Parallels and Historical Pressure

NASA has been here before.

In 1968, Apollo 8 launched just one year after the Apollo 1 fire. The agency faced immense pressure but moved forward cautiously.

With Artemis II, NASA faces a similar tightrope:

Political competition with China
Budget scrutiny
Public expectations
Astronaut safety

If something goes wrong, the consequences would be catastrophic—not just technically, but politically.

Challenger (1986) and Columbia (2003) remain sobering reminders.

The Irony of NASA vs. SpaceX Criticism

There’s another layer to this story.

NASA leadership has publicly criticized SpaceX for delays in developing the Starship Human Landing System (HLS).

But consider the contrast:

SLS/Orion

Over 15 years in development
More than $40 billion spent
Still facing hydrogen leaks
Heat shield uncertainties
No crewed flight yet

SpaceX Starship

Fully reusable design
Orbital refueling architecture
Precision lunar landing goals
Fixed-price contract
Rapid test-fail-iterate model

SpaceX delays because it is actively testing hardware. Rockets explode. Data is gathered. Improvements are made.

NASA delays often occur before hardware even flies.

One model absorbs risk through iteration.
The other mitigates risk through analysis and review.

Both aim for safety—but they operate fundamentally differently.

So When Will Artemis II Launch?

Let’s break it down realistically:

Best-Case Scenario

Successful WDR in late February
Clean data review
Launch around March 9–11

Moderate Delay Scenario

Minor hydrogen recurrence
Additional troubleshooting
Launch shifts to April or May

Worst-Case Scenario

Persistent leaks
Further heat shield scrutiny
Political hesitation
Launch slips to late 2026

Given historical precedent, a delay beyond March appears more likely than not.

What’s Really at Stake

Artemis II is more than a mission. It’s a statement.

America returning astronauts beyond low Earth orbit
Re-establishing lunar exploration capability
Setting the stage for Artemis III moon landing

But confidence in the system matters.

If NASA rushes, it risks repeating history.
If NASA delays, it risks losing credibility and momentum.

The balance is delicate.

Final Thoughts: Who Needs to Reevaluate Performance?

The real question may not be whether Artemis II slips again.

The deeper question is this:

After more than 15 years and $40+ billion, how safe and effective has the SLS/Orion system truly proven to be?

SpaceX is flying, testing, and iterating—sometimes failing, but moving forward.

NASA is moving cautiously, methodically—but slowly and expensively.

One approach prioritizes rapid hardware learning.
The other prioritizes procedural risk reduction.

In the end, astronauts’ lives depend on getting this right.

So what do you think?

Will Artemis II fly in March—or are we looking at another multi-month delay?

The coming weeks will reveal whether NASA can finally overcome its hydrogen legacy—or whether the Artemis timeline stretches even further into the future.

FAQs

1. When is the new launch date for NASA’s Artemis II mission?

NASA is currently targeting March as a possible launch window, but no official date has been confirmed. A successful Wet Dress Rehearsal (WDR) and full data review must happen first. If issues persist, the launch could slip to April or later.

2. Why was Artemis II delayed?

The latest delay is due to a liquid hydrogen leak in the SLS core stage. Hydrogen leaks have been a recurring issue in NASA’s heavy-lift rocket program.

3. What is a Wet Dress Rehearsal (WDR)?

A Wet Dress Rehearsal is a full launch countdown simulation where engineers load the rocket with propellant and run through launch procedures without liftoff. It helps identify technical problems before launch day.

4. Could Artemis II be delayed again?

Yes. If hydrogen leaks reappear during the next WDR or additional safety concerns arise, the mission could be delayed by several months.

5. Why didn’t NASA roll the SLS rocket back to the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB)?

NASA chose to repair the rocket at Launch Pad 39B to avoid vibration stress from moving the massive SLS. Previous rollbacks introduced risks and added delays.

6. What is the hydrogen leak problem with SLS?

Liquid hydrogen is extremely difficult to contain because it is the smallest molecule in existence. Even tiny seal imperfections can cause leaks, which have affected Artemis missions before.

7. Who are the astronauts on Artemis II?

Artemis II will carry four astronauts, including NASA crew members and Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen, on a mission beyond Earth’s orbit.

8. How long will the Artemis II mission last?

The Artemis II mission is expected to last approximately 10 days, traveling around the Moon and returning to Earth.

9. Is Artemis II more dangerous than missions to the ISS?

Yes. Unlike International Space Station missions in low Earth orbit, Artemis II will travel beyond Earth’s magnetic field, exposing astronauts to higher levels of cosmic radiation.

10. What are the concerns about Orion’s heat shield?

After Artemis I, engineers observed unexpected material flaking on Orion’s heat shield. Some experts argue that NASA should conduct further testing before sending astronauts aboard.

11. How much has the Artemis program cost so far?

The Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion programs have cost over $40 billion across more than 15 years of development.

12. Why does NASA use cost-plus contracts for Artemis?

NASA’s major contractors operate under cost-plus contracts, meaning they are reimbursed for expenses plus a profit margin. This model can lead to longer development timelines.

13. How does SpaceX handle launch delays differently from NASA?

SpaceX operates under fixed-price contracts and follows a rapid test-and-iterate model. When issues arise, the company typically resolves them quickly and resumes launches within days or weeks.

14. What happens if a solar storm occurs during Artemis II?

A significant solar storm could increase radiation exposure for astronauts, potentially raising long-term health risks. NASA continuously monitors solar activity during deep space missions.

15. Why is Artemis II important for future Moon missions?

Artemis II is the first crewed mission of the Artemis program and serves as a critical test before Artemis III, which aims to land astronauts on the Moon.