Elon Musk gives honest take on when Tesla will see serious FSD competition

Elon Musk has provided a candid estimate on potential challengers to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. 

Musk’s comments came on the heels of NVIDIA’s announcement of its Alpamayo system, which also uses artificial intelligence to accelerate the development of autonomous driving solutions.

Elon Musk on NVIDIA’s Alpamayo

Following NVIDIA’s announcement, Tesla community members took to X to ask the CEO about his thoughts on Alpamayo, which seemed like a direct competitor to FSD. The fact that Alpamayo also uses AI to navigate real-world roads resulted in many arguing that the system could spell the end of Tesla’s autonomous driving aspirations. 

In a response on X, Musk acknowledged that NVIDIA’s Alpamayo is doing exactly what Tesla is doing. And while he seriously hopes NVIDIA will succeed, Musk predicted that “they will find is that it’s easy to get to 99% and then super hard to solve the long tail of the distribution.”

FSD’s competition

In later posts, Musk also responded to a post discussing FSD’s progress and its potential competition in the future. In response to a longtime Tesla community member who noted that Alpamayo’s arrival does not mean FSD is doomed, Musk stated that this will indeed be the case. He then noted that, given how Tesla’s rivals operate, solutions like Alpamayo will only exert competitive pressure on Tesla in about 5-6 years, or perhaps longer. 

“You’re right. The actual time from when FSD sort of works to where it is much safer than a human is several years. The legacy car companies won’t design the cameras and AI computers into their cars at scale until several years after that. So this is maybe a competitive pressure on Tesla in 5 or 6 years, but probably longer,” Musk wrote in his response on X. 

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